Monthly Pricing of Fossil Fuels and PtX Fuels
The below information on pricing of PtX fuels (Power to X) in comparison to their fossil counterparts is provided on the background of the ongoing and accelerating efforts to decarbonise energy carriers in general and ship fuel in particular.
In December 2023 the UN COP-28 conference in Dubai declared that "...the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions..." require to triple "...renewable energy capacity globally… by 2030". Even if current developments seem to slow down the GHG reduction efforts the trend for next decade is still the same.
In 2024 solar, wind, hydro power and nuclear contributed approx. 19% to the global energy need (source: BP statistical review 2025). This would increase to approx. 24 % to the energy need in 2030 if the COP 28 target should be reached. The need to store and transport reasonable amounts of this energy will require the application of PtX energy carriers. The need to decarbonise shipping and air traffic will result in an early use of PtX fuels in these industries. If the nations succeed to reduce the world’s CO2 emissions as described by the COP 28 it can be expected that relevant amounts of PtX will be available from 2035 onward. This is less than half a ship life away from today.
It is well known that the price figures for future fuels differ significantly and mainly depends on the stakeholders publishing the figures. The missing tractability of these technology and price information motivated GMW Consultancy in 2019 to develop own models which reflect the physics and allow to identify the relevant influencing factors. The models allow to calculate the technically and commercially achievable prices for fuels produced from CO2 free electricity (renewable or nuclear energy). The models for these so called PtX-fuels are based on the process technology and CAPEX, OPEX figures for the major components. They are continuously maintained and checked against the results published by other stakeholders.
GMW Consultancy can provide you with a regularly updates for pricing of fossil fuels of today and the price relations to PtX fuels. The fossil fuel pricing is related to monthly average prices on the market. The PtX fuels are related to the production costs according to modelling results done by GMW Consultancy and the "real" prices of their fossil counterparts. Transport costs are included for round trip of approx. 10.000,- sm distance. Distribution costs are not included.
Some prices are given below. If you like to use the figures you might contact GMW Consultancy to get a high resolution copy or simply copy them from here. Don't "forget" the reference when using. A note about the use will be welcome. Note: GMW-Consultancy is not liable and gives no guaranty for the accuracy of the displayed data.
Note that GMW Consultancy also tracks price figures for fossil 0,5% S fuel oil, Methanol, Ammonia, crude wti and Ammonia, Hydrogen produced from natural gas. The relations of PtX for Hydrogen, Methane, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch Diesel, Ammonia to their fossil counterparts are tracked also.
The figure above indicates the monthly average prices in $/kWh (lhv) and potential PtX price (average of PtX: Fischer Tropsch, Methane, Methanol, Ammonia, Hydrogen ). As you see car Diesel in Germany is already on the price level PtX fuels will have.
y-axis: The y-axis is referring to the chemical energy of the fuel at the lower heating value (lhv) in $/kWh.
red reference lines: The left reference line indicate the beginning of the Ukraine war in Feb 2022. The right reference line indicate 11 March 2026 (today).
The blue line give the EU gas price. For a short time in summer 2022 EU gas price was above potential PtX cost (horizontal red line). Today it is well below the high value of 2022. The EU gas price can be used as indicator for LNG as ship fuel price.
The current MGO price (dotted red line) price, the car diesel price (Germany, dotted green line) and the oil price of Brent crude are today at the same level as they have been in 2022 after the start of the Ukraine war. .
GMW Consultancy is continuously working on the evaluation of alternative fuels for shipping which includes the Power to X (PtX) from Hydrogen itself, Hydrogen plus Carbon or Nitrogen. The focus is on Hydrogen, Methane Gas, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch oil fuel and also Ammonia (comp. References). Do not hesitate to contact GMW-Consultancy.
Sources:
[1] : different public availabe sources
[2] : PtX (min costs): prices for hydrocarbon fuels produced from renewable hydrogen and CCU (Carbon capture and Use). Based on own calculations of minimum PtX costs with electricity costs of 0,05 US$/kWh for electricity at the electrolyser.