Monthly Pricing of Fossil Fuels and PtX Fuels
The below information on pricing of PtX fuels (Power to X) in comparison to their fossil counterparts is provided on the background of the ongoing and accelerating efforts to decarbonise energy carriers in general and ship fuel in particular.
In December 2023 the UN COP-28 conference in Dubai declared that "...the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions..." require to triple "...renewable energy capacity globally… by 2030".
In 2022 solar, wind, hydro power and nuclear contributed approx. 8,7% to the global energy need. This would increase to approx. 24 % to the energy need in 2030 if these renewable energy capacity is tripled. The need to store and transport reasonable amounts of this energy will require the application of PtX energy carriers. The need to decarbonise shipping and air traffic will result in an early use of PtX fuels in these industries. If the nations succeed to reduce the world’s CO2 emissions as described by the COP 28 it can be expected that relevant amounts of PtX will be available from 2035 onward. This is less than half a ship life away from today.
It is well known that the price figures for future fuels differ significantly and mainly depends on the stakeholders publishing the figures. The missing tractability of these technology and price information motivated GMW Consultancy in 2019 to develop own models which reflect the physics and allow to identify the relevant influencing factors. The models allow to calculate the technically and commercially achievable prices for fuels produced from CO2 free electricity (renewable or nuclear energy). The models for these so called PtX-fuels are based on the process technology and CAPEX, OPEX figures for the major components. They are continuously maintained and checked against the results published by other stakeholders.
GMW Consultancy provides you with a regularly updated for pricing of fossil fuels of today and the price relations to PtX fuels. The fossil fuel pricing is related to monthly average prices on the market. The PtX fuels are related to the production costs according to modelling results done by GMW Consultancy and the "real" prices of their fossil counterparts. Transport costs are included for round trip of approx. 4.000,- sm distance. Distribution costs are not included.
The figures are updated on regular basis. If you like to use the figures you might contact GMW Consultancy to get a high resolution copy or simply copy them from here. Don't "forget" the reference when using. A note about the use will be welcome. Note: GMW-Consultancy is not liable and gives no guaranty for the accuracy of the displayed data.
Note that GMW Consultancy also tracks price figures for fossil 0,5% S fuel oil, Methanol, Ammonia, crude wti and Ammonia, Hydrogen produced from natural gas. The relations of PtX for Hydrogen, Methane, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch Diesel, Ammonia to their fossil counterparts are tracked also.
The figure above indicates the monthly average prices in $/kWh (lhv) and potential PtX prices ($/$(brent)). As you see car Diesel in Germany is already on the price level PtX fuels will have.
Fossil: The y-axis on the right is referring to the dotted lines! Unit is $/kWh, reference lhv.
PtX: The left y-axis gives PtX fuel prices related to the price of Crude oil Brent.
You see from the blue line that for a short time in summer 2022 EU gas customers could have learned in practice what an import switch to renewable energy (PtX) really mean.
The actual market picture for fossil fuels is given by the second picture which you find below.
GMW Consultancy is continuously working on the evaluation of alternative fuels for shipping which includes the Power to X (PtX) from Hydrogen itself, Hydrogen plus Carbon or Nitrogen. The focus is on Hydrogen, Methane Gas, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch oil fuel and also Ammonia (comp. References). Do not hesitate to contact GMW-Consultancy.
The figure above gives the monthly updated market prices of the most relevant fossil fuels. The doted lines give the same absolute prices as also given in the figure above. Again the right y-axis gives the $/kWh (lhv) values! The relative values are related to Crude oil Brent. Therefore Crude Oil Brent has always a value of 1,0. Note: no distribution costs included.
GMW Consultancy is continuously working on the evaluation of alternative fuels for shipping which includes the Power to X (PtX) from Hydrogen itself, Hydrogen plus Carbon or Nitrogen. The focus is on Hydrogen, Methane Gas, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch oil fuel and also Ammonia. Do not hesitate to contact GMW-Consultancy.
Sources:
[1] : different public availabe sources
[2] : PtX (min costs): prices for hydrocarbon fuels produced from renewable hydrogen and CCU (Carbon capture and Use). Based on own calculations of minimum PtX costs with electricity costs of 0,05 US$/kWh for electricity at the electrolyser.