Monthly Pricing of Fossil Fuels and PtX Fuels
Fuel produced from CO2 free energy with renewable electricity are THE topic of today's discussion about future ship fuels. GMW - Consultancy provides you with a monthly updated possible pricing for these PtX fuels and the relevant fossil fuels of today. The fossil fuel pricing is related to monthly average prices on the market. The PtX fuels are related to the production costs according to modelling results done by GMW Consultancy and the "real" prices of their fossil counterparts. Transport costs are includeed for round trip of approx 4.000,- sm distance. Distribution costs are not included.
The figures are updated on a monthly basis. If you like to use the figures you might contact GMW Consultancy to get a high resolution copy or simply copy them from here. Don't "forget" the reference when using. A note about the use will be welcome. Note: GMW-Consultancy is not liable and gives no guaranty for the accuracy of the displayed data.
Note that GMW Consultancy also tracks price figures for fossil 0,5% S fuel oil, Methanol, Ammonia, crude wti and Ammonia, Hydrogen produced from natural gas. The relations of PtX for Hydrogen, Methane, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch Diesel, Ammonia to their fossil counterparts are tracked also. Please contact GMW Consultancy.
Monthly average prices for PtX and major fossil fuels [1], [2]:
In Dec 2021 the average costs for the named PtX was about 3,2 times the costs of crude oil brent (red line). Car Diesel in Germany had also a price of approx. 3,2 times of crude oil brent (green line).
During Jan 2023 the price for fossil gas in Europe (dotted: blue) was "only" 3 times higher than in Feb. 2021! Crude brent (dotted yellow) is much lower than EU gas spot price. With approx. 0,08 $/kWh gas in Europe is again much less expensiv as PtX would be (0,19 $/kWh). MGO (dotted brown) is at the same price level as gas in EU. With approx 0,2 $/kWh (dotted green) or 3,8 times Crude Brent car Diesel in Germany could easily be replaced by PtX if PtX would be available and the taxes on Diesel would come from "somewhere else".
The figure on the left, indicates the monthly average prices in $/kWh (lhv) and potential PtX prices ($/$(brent)). In addition the relation of prices for gas in Europe and car Diesel prices in Germany are given in $/$(brent).
Fossil: The y-axis on the right is referring to the dotted lines! Unit is $/kWh, reference lhv. Doted lines are 0,1 MGO, Crude oil Brent, Natural Gas at the EU spot market (TTF) and the car diesel price in Germany.
The black line indicate the gas price in EU in Feb. 2021. The exceptional price development of gas in EU since approx. summer 2021 become obvious.
PtX: The left y-axis gives PtX fuel prices related to the price of Crude oil Brent. As you see the possible price for PtX (red) is now approx. 3,5 of the Brent price.
The current price level of Natural Gas in Europe come back to more "normal" pricing. With 1,4 times Crude Brent price natural gas in EU (blue) is again much less expensive than potential PtX fuel. This has been different in summer 2022. Car diesel is (green) is since beginning of 2022 more expensive than potential PtX. This means that woth regard to possible production costs PtX Diesel could substitute fossil Diesel in Germany if no taxes are applied.
The lesson for EU customers to learn what an import switch to renewable energy (PtX) really mean is ongoing on the car fuel side.
The actual market picture for fossil fuels is given by the second picture which you find below.
GMW Consultancy is continuously working on the evaluation of alternative fuels for shipping which includes the Power to X (PtX) from Hydrogen itself, Hydrogen plus Carbon or Nitrogen. The focus is on Hydrogen, Methane Gas, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch oil fuel and also Ammonia (comp. References). Do not hesitate to contact GMW-Consultancy.
The figure on the right gives the monthly updated market prices of the most relevant fossil fuels.
The doted lines give the same absolute prices as also given in the figure above. Again the right y-axis gives the $/kWh (lhv) values!
The relative values are related to Crude oil Brent. Therefore Crude Oil Brent has always a value of 1,0. It is obvious that natural gas in Europe and Japan (dark blue and green) currently are much more expensive than Crude oil Brent. The role of HFO as a refinery waste is indicated by a price always below Crude oil Brent (black line). MGO 0,1 is the commercial product of refineries. This is the reason that it is always more expensive compared to Crude oil Brent.
Note: no distribution costs included.
Note: Price for conventional Methanol, Ammonia (produced today from natural gas) are also tracked by GMW Consultancy.
Monthly average prices for different fuels related to crude oil brent [1]
The trend in fossil energy pricing is clearly given by the relation to crude brent in the figure above. Doted lines give the absolute values for Crude Brent (yellow) and gas in Europe (blue) as a reference. The absolute energy price of Crude Brent (0,06 $/kWh) is high but with the exception of gas in EU and Japan the price relations are as usual.
In Jan 2022 gas price Japan (green line) did not move much. The price for gas in Europe (dark blue line) is now below gas in Japan. Both are still much higher than a year before. Gas in US (light blue line) did not follow the EU, Japan gas price. Distance to crude oil is approx. constant. HFO is as usual approx. 80 to 70% of Crude Brent. Note that LNG as ship fuel prices in Rotterdam is only 9 % higher than in Singapore. LNG bunker is again at the same level as gas in Europe. Now Japan is currently the "best place" to sell spot LNG. Since mid of 2021gas in EU, Japan is deviating from the "normal" price relations between oil and gas.
MGO (0,09 $/kWh) is below LNG Japan (0,12 $/kWh). Gas in Europe (0,08 $/kWh) is 33 % less expensive than gas in Japan. Note: LSFO (0,06 $/kWh) is between Crude Brent (0,05 $/kWh) and MGO 0.1 (0,09 $/kWh). The fuel price level for ships running on LNG or MGO, LSFO 0.5 is above EU gas price. LNG as ship fuel is back to be competitive with MGO and relatively close to LSFO.
Sources:
[1] : different public availabe sources
[2] : PtX (min costs): prices for hydrocarbon fuels produced from renewable hydrogen and CCU (Carbon capture and Use). Based on own calculations of minimum PtX costs with electricity costs of 0,05 US$/kWh for electricity at the electrolyser.