Monthly Pricing of Fossil Fuels and PtX Fuels

Fuel produced from CO2 free energy with renewable electricity are THE topic of today's discussion about future ship fuels.  GMW - Consultancy provides you with a monthly updated possible pricing for these PtX fuels and the relevant fossil fuels of today. The fossil fuel pricing is related to monthly average prices on the market. The PtX fuels are related to the production costs according to modelling results done by GMW Consultancy and the "real" prices of their fossil counterparts. Transport costs are includeed for a 10000 sm round trip distance. Distribution costs are not included.

The figures are updated on a monthly basis. If you like to use the figures you might contact GMW Consultancy to get a high resolution copy or simply copy them from here. Don't "forget" the reference when using. A note about the use will be welcome. Note: GMW-Consultancy is not liable and gives no guaranty for the accuracy of the displayed data.

Note that GMW Consultancy also tracks price figures for fossil 0,5% S fuel oil, Methanol, Ammonia, crude wti, IFO 180 and Ammonia, Hydrogen produced from natural gas. The relations of PtX for Hydrogen, Methane, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch Diesel, Ammonia to their fossil counterparts are tracked also.

PtX Oct 2021.png

Monthly average prices for PtX and major fossil fuels  [1],[2] (July 2021):

In Oct 2021 the average costs for the named PtX was about 3,2 times the costs of crude oil brent (red line). Car Diesel in Germany had also a price of approx. 3,2 times of crude oil brent (green line).
 

In Oct 2021 the prices for fossil gas in Europe (dotted: blue) continued to go through the roof. Crude brent (dotted yellow) and MGO (dotted brown) were close together. With approx. 0,11 gas in Europe was most expensive. With this price PtX average price would "only" be 1,5 times more expensive than natural gas in Europe. MGO was at approx. 0,06 $/kWh.

The figure on the left, indicates the monthly average prices in $/kWh (lhv) and potential PtX prices ($/$(brent). Fossile: doted lines are MGO 0.1, Crude oil Brent and Natural Gas at the EU spot market (TTF). The y-axis on the right is referring to the dotted lines!
The left y-axis gives the possible PtX fuel prices as an average value (red line) related to the price of Crude oil Brent. For details have a look to the "References" on this web page. The fuel price for Diesel at German refueling stations is given as a reference (green line).
As you see the possible price for PtX starts above 3 ,0 of the Brent price. Mixing with fossil fuel to reach IMO goals will reduce this price. For a mix between PtX Methane and LNG only 30% of PtX Methane (Liquefied Methane Gas=LMG) is needed. For PtX Diesel and MGO approx. 50% PtX Diesel is needed.
The actual market picture for fossil fuels is given by the second picture which you find below.

GMW Consultancy is continuously working on the evaluation of alternative fuels for shipping which includes the Power to X (PtX) from Hydrogen itself, Hydrogen plus Carbon or Nitrogen. The focus is on Hydrogen, Methane Gas, Methanol, Fischer Tropsch oil fuel and also Ammonnia (comp. References). Do not hesitate to contact GMW-Consultancy.

The figure on the right gives the monthly updated market prices of the most relevant fossil fuels.

The doted lines give the same absolute prices as also given in the figure above. Again the right y-axis gives the $/kWh (lhv) values!
 

The relative values are related to Crude oil Brent. Therefore Crude Oil Brent has always a value of 1,0. It is obvious that only natural gas in Europe currently is (blue lines and green one) is more expensive than Crude oil Brent.  The role of HFO as a refinery waste is indicated by a price nearly always below Crude oil Brent (black line). MGO 0,1 is the commercial product of refinieries. This is the reason that it  is always more expensive compared to Crude oil Brent. 


Price for conventional Methanol (produced today from natural gas) are also tracked by GMW Consultancy.

Note that the upper value of 2.2 times Crude oil Brent on the left y-axis is equal to the lower value given for PtX in the figure above. Note: no distribution included.

Fuels Oct 2021.png

Monthly average prices for different fuels related to crude oil brent [1]

The trend in fossil energy pricing is clearly given by the relation to crude brent in the figure above. Doted lines give the absolute values for Crude Brent (yellow) and gas in Europe (blue) as a reference.

In Oct gas price in Europe (dark blue line) continued to went through the roof and was t 2 times of crude brent end of Oct. Gas in Japan (green line) and US (light blue line) did not follow the EU gas price. HFO is at about 80% of crude brent as usual.

Sources:

[1] : different public availabe sources

[2] : PtX (min costs): prices for hydrocarbon fuels produced from renewable hydrogen and CCU (Carbon capture and Use). Based on own calculations of minimum PtX costs with electricity costs of 0,05 US$/kWh for electricity at the electrolyser.